ABPW10 PGTW 081930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/081930Z-090600ZAPR2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081351ZAPR2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 08APR22 1200Z, TROPICAL STORM 02W (MALAKAS) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 6.2N 145.7E, APPROXIMATELY 452 NM SOUTH OF ANDERSEN AFB, AND 
HAD TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING 
TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 081500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED  
NEAR 10.7N 127.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 126.8E, APPROXIMATELY 
228 NM SOUTH-EAST OF LEGAZPI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A PARTIAL 081807Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE 
IMAGE DEPICT MOSTLY MID-LEVEL TURNING WITH ORGANIZING CONVECTIVE 
BANDS OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 
MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, A NARROW BAND OF LOW (10 TO 15 KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON THE POSITION OF 94W, BUT 
DISAGREE ON FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND TRACK. GFS RAPIDLY 
INTENSIFIES 94W TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WITHIN 18-24 HOURS AND 
KEEPS IT RATHER SMALL AND TIGHTLY WOUND BEFORE BEING SLINGSHOT INTO 
THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF 02W. HOWEVER, ECMWF DEVELOPS IT SLOWER 
REACHING TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH WITHIN 30-48 HOURS BEFORE 
BEING ENVELOPED BY 02W. CURRENT SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TREND SUGGEST 
THE GFS SOLUTION IS MORE LIKELY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
MEDIUM. 
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF 23P) PREVIOUSLY 
LOCATED NEAR 26.0S 167.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 25.9S 167.6E, 
APPROXIMATELY 223 NM SOUTH OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. THE SYSTEM IS 
CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED 
AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND 081647Z GMI 89GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A LOW-LEVEL CENTER THAT IS EXPOSED AND 
ENVELOPED BY STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS, WITH DISORGANIZED CONVECTION 
OFFSET DISTANTLY TO THE SOUTH BY SOUTH-EAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
DEPICTS AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG (25 TO 30KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(VWS) WITH 23P SLOWLY EMBEDDING ITSELF IN THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES 
AND COOL (25-26C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. WITH 23P EMBEDDING 
ITSELF IN THE MID-LATITUDE JET, GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT 23P WILL 
TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM WITH A MAJOR SHORT WAVE TROUGH 
KICK STARTING CYCLOGENESIS WITHIN 72-90 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 35 TO 40 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 993 MB. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, 
REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS 
PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. 
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 2.C.(1) AS A LOW 
AND UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.//
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