ABPW10 PGTW 080600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/080600Z-090600ZAPR2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080152ZAPR2022//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080151ZAPR2022//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 08APR22 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 02W (MALAKAS) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 5.1N 146.4E, APPROXIMATELY 524 NM SOUTH OF ANDERSEN AFB, AND 
HAD TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING 
TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 080300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 8.9N 128.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 126.1E , APPROXIMATELY 36 
NM EAST OF THE VISAYAN ISLANDS, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND 072203Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE 
DEPICT A BROAD AREA WITH DISORGANIZED CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE 
NORTHWEST NEAR THE PHILIPPINES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A 
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY PRONOUNCED 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (05 TO 10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND 
HIGH (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS 
GREATER CONCURRENCE BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING THE 
INTENSIFICATION AND POSITION OF 94W. RECENT MODEL RUNS PREDICT 
THAT THE INVEST WILL REACH TC STRENGTH AROUND TAU 48 WHILE NAVGEM 
AND CMC STILL DOUBT INTENSIFICATION AND PLACE THE INVEST 5 DEGREES 
EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 08APR22 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (FILI) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 25.2S 165.8E, APPROXIMATELY 187 NM SOUTH OF NOUMEA, NEW 
CALEDONIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPS31 PGTW 080300) FOR THE 
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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