WTPN21 PGTW 062230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95W) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061451Z APR 22//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 061500)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 3.3N 149.5E TO 6.2N 144.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 061800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 3.3N 149.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 3.6N 148.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.3N 149.1E, APPROXIMATELY 
294NM SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING IN TO A CONSOLIDATING LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED DUE 
TO STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR. GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE THAT INVEST 95W WILL CONTINUE 
TRACK WEST AND GRADUALLY DEVELOP. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. 
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
072230Z.
//
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