WTPN21 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 3.4N 148.5E TO 5.4N 145.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 061200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 3.6N 148.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 3.8N 148E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.6N 148.0E, APPROXIMATELY 322 NM 
SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING IN TO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED DUE TO 
STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR. GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE THAT INVEST 95W WILL CONTINUE 
TRACK WEST AND GRADUALLY DEVELOP. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
071500Z.
//
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