ABPW10 PGTW 050600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/050600Z-060600ZAPR2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050151ZAPR2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 11.0N 131.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 128.0E, APPROXIMATELY 159 
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DAVAO, MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 041939Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE 
IMAGE SHOW WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING LOOSELY INTO AN 
ELONGATED, WEAKLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE 
LLC IS EVIDENCED BY A 050126Z ASCAT METOP-C PASS. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS HAS IMPROVED WITH STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, LOW (10-15KT) 
VWS, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE 
IN AGREEMENT REGARDING THE GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK AND WEAK 
DEVELOPMENT OF 94W OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE MEANDERING IN A 
QUASISTATIONARY MANNER OVER THE PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 11.0N 131.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.9N 149.7E, APPROXIMATELY 196 
NM SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK, FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 050334Z AMSR2 89GHZ 
MICROWAVE PASS REVEALS RAGGED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO AN 
EXPOSED, BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) AND FRAGMENTED BANDING 
CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS HAVE 
DEGRADED AS THE UPPER HIGH TO THE NORTH SHIFTED NORTHWEST WITH 
CONVERGENT FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM AND WEAKER 
DIFFLUENCE TO THE WEST. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS UNFAVORABLE AND HAS 
INCREASED TO 15-25 KNOTS. FURTHERMORE, GFS HAS SLOWED DEVELOPMENT 
BUT INDICATES INTENSIFICATION TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH 
BETWEEN 24-72 HOURS. ECMWF INDICATES NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT 
WHILE NAVGEM SHOWS WEAK DEVELOPMENT WITH A WESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE 
CENTRAL PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 
NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 05APR22 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (FILI) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 17.8S 160.4E, APPROXIMATELY 412 NM NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW 
CALEDONIA, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 050300) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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