ABPW10 PGTW 041000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/041000Z-050600ZAPR2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040751ZAPR2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 4.4N 157.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.8N 154.3E, APPROXIMATELY 250 
NM SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH RAGGED 
LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO AN EXPOSED, BROAD LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC) AND FRAGMENTED BANDING CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST 
QUADRANT. A 040251Z AMSR2 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE 
REVEALS A CHAOTIC LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE WITH MULTIPLE, EVOLVING 
SHALLOW BANDS, INCLUDING SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, AND NO CLEAR, 
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS HAVE 
DEGRADED AS THE UPPER HIGH TO THE NORTH SHIFTED NORTHWEST WITH 
CONVERGENT FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM AND WEAKER 
DIFFLUENCE TO THE WEST. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS UNFAVORABLE AND HAS 
INCREASED TO 15-25 KNOTS. FURTHERMORE, GFS HAS SLOWED DEVELOPMENT 
BUT INDICATES INTENSIFICATION TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH IN THE 
3-4 DAY TIMEFRAME. ECMWF INDICATES NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT WHILE 
NAVGEM SHOWS WEAK DEVELOPMENT WITH A WESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE 
CENTRAL PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 
NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
11.0N 131.9E, APPROXIMATELY 273 NM NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 040432Z AMSR2 89GHZ COLOR 
COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING 
LOOSELY INTO A BROAD, WEAKLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS WITH 
STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OFFSET BY LOW TO HIGH (15-25KT) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT REGARDING THE GENERALLY 
WESTWARD TRACK AND WEAK DEVELOPMENT OF 94W OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS 
BEFORE MEANDERING IN A QUASISTATIONARY MANNER OVER THE PHILIPPINES. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 04APR22 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (TWENTYTHREE) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 16.8S 162.6E, APPROXIMATELY 331 NM WEST OF PORT VILA, 
VANUATU, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 040900) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
       (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 16.5S 162.5E IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. 
SEE PARA 2.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO 
WARNING STATUS.//
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