ABPW10 PGTW 040600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/040600Z-050600ZAPR2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/031821ZAPR2022
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 4.4N 157.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.8N 154.3E, APPROXIMATELY 250 
NM SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH RAGGED 
LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO AN EXPOSED, BROAD LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC) AND FRAGMENTED BANDING CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST 
QUADRANT. A 040251Z AMSR2 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE 
REVEALS A CHAOTIC LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE WITH MULTIPLE, EVOLVING 
SHALLOW BANDS, INCLUDING SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, AND NO CLEAR, 
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS HAVE 
DEGRADED AS THE UPPER HIGH TO THE NORTH SHIFTED NORTHWEST WITH 
CONVERGENT FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM AND WEAKER 
DIFFLUENCE TO THE WEST. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS UNFAVORABLE AND HAS 
INCREASED TO 15-25 KNOTS. FURTHERMORE, GFS HAS SLOWED DEVELOPMENT 
BUT INDICATES INTENSIFICATION TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH IN THE 
3-4 DAY TIMEFRAME. ECMWF INDICATES NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT WHILE 
NAVGEM SHOWS WEAK DEVELOPMENT WITH A WESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE 
CENTRAL PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 
NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
11.0N 131.9E, APPROXIMATELY 273 NM NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 040432Z AMSR2 89GHZ COLOR 
COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING 
LOOSELY INTO A BROAD, WEAKLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS WITH 
STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OFFSET BY LOW TO HIGH (15-25KT) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT REGARDING THE GENERALLY 
WESTWARD TRACK AND WEAK DEVELOPMENT OF 94W OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS 
BEFORE MEANDERING IN A QUASISTATIONARY MANNER OVER THE PHILIPPINES. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 15.7S 164.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.5S 162.5E, APPROXIMATELY 
406 NM NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP 
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THIS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION IS EVIDENT IN 
A 040510Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING DEEP CONVECTIVE 
BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SEMICIRCLES WITH SHALLOW 
BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY LOW TO 
MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
OF 29-30C REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS 
INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WITHIN THE 
NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 
TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS21 
PGTW 031830) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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