ABPW10 PGTW 030600 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND /SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/030600Z-040600ZAPR2022// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.4N 158.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.4N 157.0E, APPROXIMATELY 352 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG MID-LEVEL TURNING OVER A BROAD, WEAKLY-DEFINED LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). FAVORABLE CONDITIONS CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUE TO FUEL LOOSELY ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM REMAINS BROAD, THE LLC IS LOCATED NORTH OF A STRONG WESTERLY WIND BURST WITH EXTENSIVE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONVERGING INTO THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE STEADY INTENSIFICATION AND CONSOLIDATION WITH A WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. GFS AND NAVGEM FORM A MINIMAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS WHILE ECMWF SHOWS SLOWER DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.5S 164.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1S 164.6E, APPROXIMATELY 217 NM WEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. ALTHOUGH A PARTIAL 030202Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE MISSED MOST OF THE BROAD SYSTEM, IT DOES SHOW FRAGMENTED, FORMATIVE BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW OVER THE VANUATU ISLANDS. A 022252Z ASCAT-C IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 20- 25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN FLANK. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM VANUATU GENERALLY INDICATE NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS. UPPER- LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A POINT SOURCE OVER THE CENTER WITH EXTENSIVE RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, WARM (29- 30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD AND JUST NORTHWEST OF NEW CALEDONIA. NAVGEM HAS A SIMILAR TRACK BUT SLOWER DEVELOPMENT WITH A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMING WITHIN THE NEXT 48-60 HOURS. BASED ON THE EXCELLENT ENVIRONMENT, GFS AND ECMWF ARE THE FAVORED MODELS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.// NNNN