ABPW10 PGTW 030330 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS CORRECTED/030330Z-030600ZAPR2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.4N 
158.3E, APPROXIMATELY 423 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 022334Z ASCAT-B PARTIAL PASS 
REVEALS AN BROAD REGION OF ENHANCED NORTHEASTERLY AND NORTHERLY WIND 
FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). WHILE THE SCATTEROMETER PASS DOES NOT 
DEFINE THE ACTUAL LLCC, IT PROVIDED ADDITIONAL CLARIFICATION TO THE 
INITIAL POSITION. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICTS A BROAD REGION OF FLARING, BUT DISORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER 
AND AROUND THE DEVELOPING LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS IS FAVORABLE 
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD RADIAL 
OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL 
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE ODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 
INVEST 95W WILL CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OVER THE NEXT 
SEVERAL DAYS, WHILE QUICKLY CONSLIDATING. MODELS SHOW SOME 
DISPARITIES REGARDING INTENSIFICATION, WITH GFS BEING THE MOST 
AGGRESSIVE, REACHING TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH WITHIN 48 HOURS, 
WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER, NOT REACHING DEPRESSION STRENGTH 
UNTIL ABOUT 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 
NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) LOCATED NEAR 17.5S 
164.6E, APPROXIMATELY 212NM WEST OF PORT VILLA, VANUATU. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 022159Z ASCAT PASS SHOW 
99P HAS BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS WITH THE 
STRONG MID-LEVEL TURNING GRADUALLY BURROWING DOWN TO THE SURFACE, 
THOUGH THE WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) REMAINS OBSCURED BY MID 
AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES PRIME 
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (05-
10KT) VWS AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GFS REMAINS 
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL WITH A TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPING WITHIN 
THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TOWARD 
NEW CALEDONIA. ECMWF AND NAVGEM SHOW A SIMILAR TRACK BUT A LATER 
DEVELOPMENT TIMELINE, REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AROUND 72 
HOURS IN THE FUTURE. THE GFS SOLUTION APPEARS MORE LIKELY 
CONSIDERING THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED POSITION OF AREA IN PARA. 
1.B.(1).//
NNNN