ABIO10 PGTW 311800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/311800ZMAR2022-011800ZAPR2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/311351ZMAR2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 31MAR22 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HALIMA) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 19.5S 84.2E, APPROXIMATELY 1009 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO 
GARCIA, AND HAD TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 311500) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 18.7S 111.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.1S 112.1E, APPROXIMATELY 
422 NM NORTH OF GERALDTON, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY 
DEPICTS BROAD CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A 
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY 
ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(VWS), AND COOL (27-28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST).  GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK 
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA AND MAKES LANDFALL 
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. INVEST 96S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT 
CONTINUES TO TRACK IN TO COOLER SSTS AND AREAS OF HIGH VWS.  MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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