ABPW10 PGTW 300600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS 300600Z-310600ZMAR2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/292121ZMAR2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED  
NEAR 10.8N 113.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 110.5E, APPROXIMATELY  
232NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM. 93W HAS SLOWLY 
CONSOLIDATED WHILE MAINTAINING STRONG MID-LEVEL TURNING. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING, 
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION OBSCURING A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 
300237Z ASCAT-B PASS REVEALS ISOLATED 25KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN 
AND NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERIES WITH WEAKER WINDS WRAPPING INTO A 
DEFINED BUT BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH NEAR-RADIAL 
OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (29-30C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN HINDRANCES ARE THE SHORT (6-12 HOUR) 
WINDOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER WATER AND BROAD STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. 
GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT BUT DOES SHOW SLIGHT 
INTENSIFICATION TO NEAR TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) STRENGTH JUST PRIOR 
TO LANDFALL AND THEN DISSIPATION OVER LAND. ECMWF ALSO SHOWS A 
BORDERLINE TD NEAR LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. 
SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 292130) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
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