ABPW10 PGTW 290030 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND /SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/290030Z-290600ZMAR2022// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.6N 118.0E, APPROXIMATELY 119NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES. THERE IS AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH SOME VISIBLE LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING IN FROM THE EAST AS SEEN IN THE FIRST FEW FRAMES OF VISIBLE IMAGERY. ANALYSIS INDICATES THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH BURGEONING RADIAL OUTFLOW, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C), AND LOW (05-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS, WITH GFS BEING THE BIGGEST PROPONENT FOR THE SYSTEMS DEVELOPMENT WITH 93W REACHING STRONG TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH EAST OF THE VIETNAM COASTLINE, WHILE ECMWF HARDLY RECOGNIZES A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AND DOESN’T DEVELOP THE SYSTEM. ENSEMBLES HOWEVER HAVE A TIGHT GROUPING FOR BOTH ECENS AND GEFS, AND BOTH PROPAGATE 93W TO VIETNAM WITH MOST GEFS AND ECENS MEMBERS RECOGNIZING AT LEAST A TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH SYSTEM. OVERALL ASSESSMENT IS THAT 93W WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND INTENSIFY IN THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO LOW.// NNNN