WTXS31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (CHARLOTTE) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (CHARLOTTE) WARNING NR 015    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   240000Z --- NEAR 19.9S 107.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.9S 107.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z --- 21.6S 106.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 107.1E.
24MAR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (CHARLOTTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
412 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 21S HAS RAPIDLY 
WEAKENED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS UNDER STRONG AND PERSISTENT 
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME FULLY EXPOSED IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND THERE WAS HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL 
POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO A GENEROUS 35 
KNOTS, WITH THE PGTW CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATED AT 2.5 (35 KNOTS) 
WITH A FINAL-T OF T2.0. ADT WAS AT 2.7 BUT THE RAW ADT WAS DOWN TO 
T1.5. ADDITIONALLY A 232305Z SMOS PASS SHOWED WINDS PREDOIMINANTLY OF 
30 KNOTS OR LESS AROUND THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM HAS TURNED SOUTHWARD 
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE 
(STR) AND IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE ALONG THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE STR AND AN APPROACHING SUBTROPICAL LOW. THE SYSTEM IS 
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN, TO BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD WITHIN THE 
NEXT 12 HOURS. HOWEVER, THE REMNANT CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS BEFORE TURNING EAST 
TOWARDS THE COAST OF AUSTRALIA BY TAU 48. THE ASSOCIATED WIND FIELD IS 
EXPECTED TO EXPAND AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES SUBTROPICAL IN NATURE BY TAU 
36. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SYSTEM COULD REINTENSIFY AS A SUBTROPICAL 
LOW AFTER TAU 36 WITH WINDS UP TO GALE-FORCE AT TIMES THROUGH THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT 
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED 
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z 
IS 16 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HALIMA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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