WTIO21 PGTW 220300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91B) CANCELLATION// REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210251Z MAR 22// AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 210300)// RMKS/ 1. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 94.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 94.7E, APPROXIMATELY 128 NM SOUTHWEST OF YANGON, MYANMAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONVECTION BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). HOWEVER, LANDFALL IN MYANMAR IS IMMINENT, SO THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR DEVELOPMENT IS CLOSING. ANALYSES INDICATE A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY LOW TO MODERATE (10-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT INVEST 91B WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD OVER MYANMAR AND DISSIPATE. OF NOTE, ECMWF SUGGEST THAT 91B MAY BRIEFLY CROSS BACK OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL AND UNDERGOING MINOR REORGANIZATION BEFORE MOVING BACK OVER LAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM. THIS CANCELS REF A.// NNNN