WTIO21 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91B) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210251Z MAR 22//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 210300)//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 210300). THE AREA OF 
CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 94.3E IS NOW 
LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 94.7E APPROXIMATELY 128 NM SOUTHWEST OF YANGON, 
MYANMAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS 
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC), THAT IS CURRENTLY TRACKING CLOSELY TOWARDS THE 
MYANMAR COAST. ANALYSES INDICATE A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
(SST), AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET MARGINALLY BY LOW TO MODERATE (10-
20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT 
INVEST 91B WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD OVER MYANMAR AND 
DISSIPATE. OF NOTE, ECMWF DETERMINISTIC DEPICTS 91B CROSSING BACK 
OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL AND UNDERGOING MINOR INTENSIFICATION AND 
CONSOLIDATION BEFORE CROSSING BACK ONTO LAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM.//
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