ABIO10 PGTW 211800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/211800Z-221800ZMAR2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210251ZMAR2022//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/211351ZMAR2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED. REF B IS 
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 12.1N 94.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 135N 94.3E, APPROXIMATELY 227 
NM SOUTHWEST OF YANGON, MYANMAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 211430Z GM1 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT 
PERSISTENT CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHWEST OF A LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND 91B REMAINS 
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH REASONABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, 
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) VALUES (29-30C) MARGINALLY 
OFFSET BY LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). 
TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A NORTHERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS, WITH LANDFALL ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE MYANMAR COAST. 
GUIDANCE DOES NOT INDICATE 91B REACHING TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH 
PRIOR TO LAND INTERACTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. 
SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 210300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 21MAR22 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (CHARLOTTE) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 16.0S 110.6E, APPROXIMATELY 427 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF 
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED 
AT 60 KNOTS GUSTING TO 75 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 211500) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 9.7S 86.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 84.6E, APPROXIMATELY 741 
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED EIR DEPICTS BROAD LOW-
LEVEL TURNING AND FLARING CONVECTION. A 211425Z GMI 89GHZ SATELLITE 
IMAGE REVEALS AN OVERALL LACK OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE 
ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST 94S. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20KTS) 
VWS, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29C) SSTS. GLOBAL MODELS 
AGREE THAT INVEST 94S WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND DEVELOP AS 
THE SYSTEM SLOWLY DRIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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