ABIO10 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/210300Z-211800ZMAR2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210251ZMAR2022//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210151ZMAR2022//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. REF B IS A
/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.7N 94.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 94.9E, APPROXIMATELY
290NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YANGON, MYANMAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT INVEST 01B CONTINUES TO SLOWLY 
CONSOLIDATE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH MODERATE CONVECTIVE BANDING. 
A 210024Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS INCREASINGLY WELL-
DEFINED LOW LEVEL BANDING FEATURES AND ELONGATED FRAGMENTED 
CONVECTIVE BANDS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTH OF THE LLC.  
THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND 91B REMAINS ENCOURAGING FOR FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT WITH REASONABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (05-10 KNOTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND NOURISHING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE 
VALUES (29-30C). TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A NORTHERLY TRACK 
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, WITH LANDFALL ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF 
THE MYANMAR COAST. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RELATIVELY STEADY 
BUT SLOW INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WITH THE 
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 32 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTIO21 210300) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 21MAR22 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (CHARLOTTE) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 14.6S 111.8E, APPROXIMATELY 480 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF 
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED 
AT 55 KNOTS GUSTING TO 70 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 210300) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 9.0S 89.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.7S 86.8E, APPROXIMATELY 855 NM 
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 
202227Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN 
PERIPHERY OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(VWS), GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (SSTS). GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT INVEST 94S WILL 
CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS 
SOUTHWESTWARD AND WILL REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CRITERIA IN 
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN 2.B.(1) TO MEDIUM AND 
REISSUED TCFA FOR AREA IN 1.B.(1).
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