WTIO21 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200251Z MAR 22//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 200300)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.9N 94.9E TO 16.7N 94.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 210000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.1N 94.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.7N 94.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 94.9E, APPROXIMATELY
290NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YANGON, MYANMAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT INVEST 01B CONTINUES TO SLOWLY 
CONSOLIDATE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH MODERATE CONVECTIVE BANDING. 
A 210024Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS INCREASINGLY WELL-
DEFINED LOW LEVEL BANDING FEATURES AND ELONGATED FRAGMENTED 
CONVECTIVE BANDS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTH OF THE LLC.  
THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND 91B REMAINS ENCOURAGING FOR FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT WITH REASONABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (05-10 KNOTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND NOURISHING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE 
VALUES (29-30C). TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A NORTHERLY TRACK 
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, WITH LANDFALL ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF 
THE MYANMAR COAST. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RELATIVELY STEADY 
BUT SLOW INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WITH THE 
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 32 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.  THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
220300Z.
//
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