ABIO10 PGTW 201800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/201800Z-211700ZMAR2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/201351ZMAR2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.5N 93.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 94.9E, APPROXIMATELY
370NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YANGON, MYANMAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH 
IMPROVING CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 201147Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE 
DEPICTS A WIDE AREA OF LOW LEVEL BANDING FEATURES AND FRAGMENTED 
CONVECTIVE BANDS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE EXTENDING WEST TO EAST, WHILE 
A 201531Z BULLSEYE ASCAT PASS SHOWS BROAD 25 TO 30 KNOT SWATHS OF 
WINDS WRAPPING INTO A FORMATIVE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 
INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND LOW (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (VWS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE VALUES (29-30C) ARE CONDUCIVE 
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES A NORTHERLY TRACK 
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, WITH POSSIBLE LANDFALL ALONG THE WESTERN 
COAST OF MYANMAR. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STEADY INTENSIFICATION 
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 20MAR22 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (TWENTYONE) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 13.1S 113.7E, APPROXIMATELY 552 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, 
AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 201500) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 9.0S 92.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.0S 89.0E, APPROXIMATELY 495 NM 
WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 201118Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS DEEP 
CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF A DEVELOPING 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 201526Z ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASS 
REVEALED A DISORGANIZED AND VERY BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER AT THE FAR 
WESTERN END OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROUGH, WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS 
PRESENT IN STRAIGHT LINE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE TROUGH AND MUCH 
WEAKER WINDS TO THE NORTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (VWS), WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE THAT 
INVEST 94S WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM 
TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND WILL REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING 
CRITERIA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN