ABIO10 PGTW 201530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/201530Z-201800ZMAR2022//
RMKS/
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200251ZMAR2022//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/201351ZMAR2022//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. REF B IS A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.9N 93.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 93.8E, APPROXIMATELY
401NM SOUTH-SOUTH WEST OF YANGON, MYANMAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION WITH IMPROVING CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 192234Z SSMIS 91GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED LOW LEVEL BANDING FEATURES AND 
FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDS ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE EXTENDING TO THE 
SOUTH IN VICINITY OF THE NICOBAR ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, 
AND LOW (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURE VALUES (29-30C) ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. 
TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES A NORTHERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, 
WITH A POSSIBLE LANDFALL ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE MYANMAR 
COAST. THE BULK OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGETS RELATIVELY STEADY 
BUT SLOW INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS, WHILE THE 
HWRF SUGGESTS MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITH A TRACK MORE OVER 
WATER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 
200300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 20MAR22 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (TWENTYONE) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 13.1S 113.7E, APPROXIMATELY 552 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, 
AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS31 PGTW 201500) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 11.8S 116.4E IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. 
SEE PARA. 2.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.0S 
92.1E, APPROXIMATELY 342 NM NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 191459Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS 
REVEAL AN ELONGATED AND BROAD LLC. UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT 
INVEST 94S IS HINDERED BY HIGH (30-40KT) VWS AND WEAK EQUATORWARD 
OUTFLOW BUT IS OFFSET BY FAVORABLE (29-30C) SST VALUES. GLOBAL 
NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE THAT INVEST 94S WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP AS THE 
SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH 
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH UNTIL BEYOND THE 48-72 HOUR PERIOD. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15-20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO 
WARNING STATUS.
NNNN