ABIO10 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/200300Z-201800ZMAR2022//
RMKS/
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200251ZMAR2022//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191451ZMAR2022//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. REF B IS A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.////
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 09.9S 93.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.5S 93.8E, APPROXIMATELY
401NM SOUTH-SOUTH WEST OF YANGON, MYANMAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION WITH IMPROVING CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 192234Z SSMIS 91GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED LOW LEVEL BANDING FEATURES AND 
FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDS ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE EXTENDING TO THE 
SOUTH IN VICINITY OF THE NICOBAR ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, 
AND LOW (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURE VALUES (29-30C) ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. 
TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES A NORTHERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, 
WITH A POSSIBLE LANDFALL ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE MYANMAR 
COAST. THE BULK OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGETS RELATIVELY STEADY 
BUT SLOW INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS, WHILE THE 
HWRF SUGGESTS MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITH A TRACK MORE OVER 
WATER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTIO21) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.7S 118.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8S 116.4E, APPROXIMATELY
635NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 191317Z PARTIAL 
ASCAT PASS REVEALS BROAD EASTERN SWATH OF 20-25 KNOT WINDS WITH 
POCKETS OF 30 KNOTS WRAPPING INTO A FORMATIVE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH RELATIVELY STRONG 
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) VALUES (30-31C) 
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH STEADY DEVELOPMENT. 
GFS AND HWRF SHOW A SHARP INTENSIFICATION TREND WHILE COAMPS-TC 
INDICATES A SLOWER INTENSIFICATION TREND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. SEE 
REF B (WTXS21) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.0S 
92.1E, APPROXIMATELY 342 NM NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 191459Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS 
REVEAL AN ELONGATED AND BROAD LLC. UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT 
INVEST 94S IS HINDERED BY HIGH (30-40KT) VWS AND WEAK EQUATORWARD 
OUTFLOW BUT IS OFFSET BY FAVORABLE (29-30C) SST VALUES. GLOBAL 
NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE THAT INVEST 94S WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP AS THE 
SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH 
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH UNTIL BEYOND THE 48-72 HOUR PERIOD. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15-20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN 1.B.(1) TO HIGH.//
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