ABIO10 PGTW 191900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE 
INDIAN/OCEAN/191900Z-201900ZMAR2022//
RMKS/
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191451ZMAR2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 9.9N 93.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 92.9E, APPROXIMATELY 140 NM 
SOUTH OF PORT BLAIR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED 
CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 191200Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES 
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING, HOWEVER THE BANDING IS FRAGMENTED AND 
IS CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SEMICIRCLES. UPPER 
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR AND BROAD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES ARE 
CONDUCIVE AT 28-30C. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A GENERALLY NORTHWARD TRACK 
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS TOWARD MYANMAR WITH STEADY CONSOLIDATION AND 
INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.7S 118.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8S 116.4E, APPROXIMATELY
635NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 191317Z PARTIAL 
ASCAT PASS REVEALS BROAD EASTERN SWATH OF 20-25 KNOT WINDS WITH 
POCKETS OF 30 KNOTS WRAPPING INTO A FORMATIVE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH RELATIVELY STRONG 
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) VALUES (30-31C) 
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH STEADY DEVELOPMENT. 
GFS AND HWRF SHOW A SHARP INTENSIFICATION TREND WHILE COAMPS-TC 
INDICATES A SLOWER INTENSIFICATION TREND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.0S 
92.1E, APPROXIMATELY 342 NM NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 191459Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS 
REVEAL AN ELONGATED AND BROAD LLC. UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT 
INVEST 94S IS HINDERED BY HIGH (30-40KT) VWS AND WEAK EQUATORWARD 
OUTFLOW BUT IS OFFSET BY FAVORABLE (29-30C) SST VALUES. GLOBAL 
NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE THAT INVEST 94S WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP AS THE 
SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH 
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH UNTIL BEYOND THE 48-72 HOUR PERIOD. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15-20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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