ABIO10 PGTW 191530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON/WRNCEN/PEARL/HARBOR/HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/191530Z-191800ZMAR2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191451ZMAR2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED  
NEAR 7.8N 91.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 93.6E, APPROXIMATELY 118NM  
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT BLAIR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FRAGMENTED 
CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 191200Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES 
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING HOWEVER THE BANDING IS FRAGMENTED AND IS 
CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SEMICIRCLES. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR AND BROAD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES ARE 
CONDUCIVE AT 28-30C. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A GENERALLY NORTHWARD TRACK 
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS TOWARD MYANMAR WITH STEADY DEVELOPMENT. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.7S 118.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6S 116.8E, APPROXIMATELY
653NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 191305Z GMI 89GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER THE NORTHERN 
AND EASTERN SEMICIRCLES WRAPPING INTO A FORMATIVE LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND LOW TO 
MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SST VALUES (30-31C) ARE 
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH STEADY DEVELOPMENT. 
GFS AND HWRF SHOW A SHARP INTENSIFICATION TREND WHILE COAMPS-TC 
INDICATES A SLOWER INTENSIFICATION TREND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 191500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.3S 
94.5E, APPROXIMATELY 320 NM NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 181209Z SSMIS 91GHZ 
MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING FORMING NORTH 
AND SOUTHEAST OF A BROAD LLC. UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT INVEST 
94S IS UNDER HIGH (30-40KT) VWS, WITH SLIGHT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW 
OFFSET BY FAVORABLE (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL 
NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE THAT INVEST 94S WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP AS THE 
SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH 
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH UNTIL BEYOND 72-96 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15-20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARAGRAPH 1.B.(1) TO 
MEDIUM AND UPGRADED AREA IN PARAGRAPH 2.B.(1) TO HIGH.//
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