WTXS21 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.4S 117.5E TO 14.2S 112.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS 
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 
191430Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.6S 
116.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.7S 118.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6S 116.8E, APPROXIMATELY
653NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 191305Z GMI 89GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER THE NORTHERN 
AND EASTERN SEMICIRCLES WRAPPING INTO A FORMATIVE LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND LOW TO 
MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SST VALUES (30-31C) ARE 
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH STEADY DEVELOPMENT. 
GFS AND HWRF SHOW A SHARP INTENSIFICATION TREND WHILE COAMPS-TC 
INDICATES A SLOWER INTENSIFICATION TREND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
201500Z.//
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