ABIO10 PGTW 181800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE 
INDIAN/OCEAN/181800Z-191800ZMAR2022//RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED  
NEAR 7.5N 91.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.8N 91.3E, APPROXIMATELY 281NM  
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT BLAIR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 181213Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT 
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION OBSCURING A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE 
ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR EQUATORWARD 
OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ON THE NORTHEAST 
SIDE, AND MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30KT) SHEAR TO THE SOUTH, OFFSET BY 
WARM (29-30C) SSTS. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT INVEST 91B WILL TRACK 
NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. HOWEVER, THE DEVELOPMENT 
TIMELINES HAVE SIGNIFICANT DISPARITY BETWEEN GFS AND ECWMF. ECWMF 
AND THE ENSEMBLE KEEP THE SYSTEM UNDER TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH 
THROUGH 48-72 HOURS, WHILE GFS AND THE ENSEMBLE ACCELERATE THE 
INTENSIFICATION TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WITHIN 24-36 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. 
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 10.0S 122.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 121.2E, APPROXIMATELY 
265 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BROWSE ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 181026Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS 
DEPICT DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF AN OBSCURED AND 
RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS 
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW, LOW (5-15KT) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SSTS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 
NAVGEM, GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE THAT INVEST 93S WILL CONTINUE 
ON ITS WESTSOUTHWESTWARD TRACK BEFORE INTENSIFICATION, WITH THE BULK 
OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE SYSTEM WILL NOT REACH TROPICAL 
STORM STRENGTH UNTIL AFTER 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.3S 
94.5E, APPROXIMATELY 320 NM NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND. EIR AND A 
181209Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE 
BANDING FORMING NORTH AND SOUTHEAST OF A BROAD LLC. UPPER-AIR 
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT INVEST 94S IS UNDER HIGH (30-40KT) VWS, WITH 
SLIGHT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY FAVORABLE (29-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE THAT INVEST 94S WILL 
GRADUALLY DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BUT IS NOT 
EXPECTED TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH UNTIL BEYOND 72-96 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15-20 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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