ABIO10 PGTW 180400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/180400Z-181800ZMAR2022//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 5.1N 88.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.2N 90.7E, APPROXIMATELY 450 NM 
WEST OF PHUKET, THAILAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 172301Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT 
SCATTERED AND DISORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH A WEAK AND BROAD LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM LIES IN AN AREA THAT IS MODERATELY 
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT; WITH FAIR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW-
MODERATE (10-20KT) VWS OFFSET BY WARM (29-30C) SSTS. GLOBAL MODELS 
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91B WILL HAVE SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS 
IT TRACKS NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.8S 
93.0E, APPROXIMATELY 812 NM WEST OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA. EIR AND A 
172153Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS  DEPICT CONVECTIVE BANDING 
SHEARED WEST OF A SLIGHTLY OBSCURED LLC IN THE NORTHWESTERN 
PERIPHERY AND FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTH. UPPER-
AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT INVEST 94S IS UNDER HIGH (30-40KT) VWS, WITH 
FAIR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS OFFSET BY 30C SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE INVEST 94S WILL 
GRADUALLY DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.  MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
10.0S 122.0E, APPROXIMATELY 474 NM NORTH OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. EIR 
AND A PARTIAL 172148Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT DEEP 
CONVECTION, DISPLACED OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT OF A RAGGED AND 
ELONGATED LLC. THE LLC STRUCTURE IS CONFIRMED BY A 171359Z ASCAT 
METOP-C PASS. CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT ARE FAVORABLE AS INVEST 93S 
LIES NEAR A DIVERGENT QUADRANT OF A COL REGION; PROVIDING ROBUST 
OUTFLOW, LOW (5-15KT) VWS AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SSTS. GLOBAL 
NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE THAT INVEST 93S WILL CONTINUE ON ITS WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AND MODERATELY INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREAS IN 2.B.(1) AND 2.B.(2) 
TO LOW.//
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