ABIO10 PGTW 161800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/161800Z-171800ZMAR2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/160751ZMAR2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 3.3N 87.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.1N 88.7E, APPROXIMATELY 587 NM 
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PHUKET, THAILAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS LARGE, DISORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF DEEP 
CONVECTION FLARING OVER A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 161239Z 
SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD, WEAKLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH POORLY-ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTIVE 
ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH 
DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30KTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (VWS). NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SLOW 
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE TRACKS 
GENERALLY EASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 16MAR22 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (BILLY) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 18.1S 93.6E, APPROXIMATELY 402 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS 
ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 160900) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 19S) HAS PERSISTED 
NEAR 17.8S 37.6E, APPROXIMATELY 196 NM NORTHEAST OF BEIRA, 
MOZAMBIQUE. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS 
A FORMATIVE BANDING AS EVIDENT IN A 161557Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE 
SATELLITE IMAGE. THE CIRCULATION LIES IN AN AREA OF LOW (5-10KT) VWS 
OFFSET BY WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE 
SPLIT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST TC 19S, WITH GFS BEING THE 
AGGRESSOR; FORECASTING THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE 
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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