ABIO10 PGTW 160030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/160030Z-161800ZMAR2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151951ZMAR2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 3.3N 87.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.0N 87.9E, APPROXIMATELY 490 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS LARGE, DISORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF DEEP 
CONVECTION FLARING OVER A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 151252Z 
SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD, WEAKLY 
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH POORLY-ORGANIZED DEEP 
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS IS MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE WITH DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE 
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE TRACKS 
GENERALLY EASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 15MAR22 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (BILLY) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 17.6S 95.3E, APPROXIMATELY 336 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS 
ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE 
ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS GUSTING TO 70 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 
152100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 19S) PREVIOUSLY 
LOCATED NEAR 18.1S 38.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.0S 37.9E, 
APPROXIMATELY  200NM NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYS AN ELONGATED BAND OF 
CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH 
DEEP FLARING CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. A 151849Z 
ASCAT-B PASS SHOWS A WELL DEFINED BUT WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
WITH 15-20KT WINDS SURROUNDING THE CENTER OFF THE COAST OF 
MOZAMBIQUE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A GENERALLY FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (29C) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) OFFSET BY WEAK DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. 
HOWEVER, PROXIMITY TO LAND AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL PLACE A 
SIGNIFICANT BARRIER TO DEVELOPMENT. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE 
INDICATES THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD BEFORE DISSIPATING 
OVER LAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 12.4S 50.7E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DOWNGRADED AREA IN 2.B(1) TO LOW AND 
DISSIPATED AREA IN 2.B.(2).//
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