ABIO10 PGTW 141800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/141800Z-151800ZMAR2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140751ZMAR2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 3.6N 
87.8E, APPROXIMATELY 683 NM SOUTHWEST OF PHUKET, THAILAND. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS PERSISTENT FLARING 
CONVECTION OVER A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). RECENT PARTIAL 
SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOW 20-25 KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LLC. UPPER 
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES 91B IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (26-27C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES BEING OFFSET BY HIGH (25-30KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 91B WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY 
BEFORE TRACKING NORTHWARD BY TAU 84. HOWEVER, THERE IS DISPARITY 
BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. GFS AND NAVGEM 
STRENGTHEN THE SYSTEM CONSISTENTLY OVER THE COMING DAYS, WITH ECMWF 
SHOWING LITTLE TO NO DEVELOPMENT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 14MAR22 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (TWENTY) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 15.3S 100.6E, APPROXIMATELY 285 NM SOUTHEAST OF COCOS 
ISLANDS, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 140900) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE REMNANTS OF 19S (GOMBE) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 18.2S 
37.2E, APPROXIMATELY 160 NM NORTHEAST OF BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE. THE 
REMNANTS OF 19S (GOMBE) HAS REEMERGED OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. 
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES FLARING 
FRAGEMENTED CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF A LOW LEVEL 
CIRCLULATION. DESPITE FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (29C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, THE PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
AND THE PROXIMITY TO LAND ARE INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS 
ARE INDICATING THE CIRCULATION WILL TRACK BACK OVER LAND WITHIN THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS AND DO NOT INDICATE REDEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE AT THIS TIME. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 
NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW. 
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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