ABIO10 PGTW 131800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/131800Z-141800ZMAR2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130851ZMAR2022//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 11.0S 107.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.6S 104.3E, APPROXIMATELY 
440 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 131133Z 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE 
DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. 
ADDITIONALLY, A 131429Z METOP-B ASCAT BULLSEYE PASS INDICATES A 
DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH NUMEROUS 30-KNOT WIND VECTORS OVER THE 
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY; STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, 
LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90S 
WILL GENERALLY TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD, HOWEVER THEY ARE STILL 
SPLIT ON INTENSIFICATION WITH ECMWF SHOWING SLOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER 
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 
NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A 
(WTXS21 PGTW 130900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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