WTXS21 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.0S 105.6E TO 15.9S 100.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 130600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.1S 105.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 11.0S 107.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.1S 105.4E, APPROXIMATELY 
161 NM SOUTH OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE AND A 130641Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT DEEP CONVECTION 
OVERHEAD OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FORMATIVE FEEDER 
BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLC. A 130249Z BULLSEYE ASCAT-C PASS SHOWS 
25 KNOT WINDS IN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY; 
STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND 
WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90S WILL GENERALLY TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD, 
HOWEVER, THEY ARE STILL SPLIT ON INTENSIFICATION WITH ECMWF SHOWING 
SLOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
140900Z.
//
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