WTXS31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE) WARNING NR 014    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   121800Z --- NEAR 15.6S 35.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF 
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 35.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z --- 16.2S 34.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 35.0E.
12MAR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM
SOUTHEAST OF LILONGWE, MALAWI, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH FRAGMENTED 
RAIN BANDS THAT HAVE UNRAVELED AS THE CENTRAL AND FEEDER BAND 
CONVECTION SIGNIFICANTLY WARMED AND COLLAPSED. THE INITIAL POSITION 
AND INTENSITY ARE PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTLY 
EXPOSED, IRREGULAR, BUT STILL DISCERNIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, AND 
EXTRAPOLATED FROM NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INCLUDING WIND AND 
MSLP REPORT FROM CHILEKA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, A FEW MILES JUST TO 
THE NORTH. THE INTENSITY IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE 6-HR EIR 
DEGRADATION. TC GOMBE HAS DISSIPATED OVER LAND. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE 
WIDELY SPREAD IN TRACKS SOLUTIONS BEYOND TAU 36 WITH THE VORTEXES 
HEADING IN ERRATIC TRAJECTORIES; HOWEVER, THE VAST MAJORITY OF THEM 
KEEP THE VORTEXES OR RECURVES THEM QUICKLY INLAND WITH THE 3RD 
INTERPOLATION OF ECMWF SUGGESTING A LONGER WATER EXPOSURE PAST TAU 
72 BEFORE RECURVING INLAND. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM 
BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE 
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
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