ABIO10 PGTW 120630
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/120630Z-121800ZMAR2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/111951ZMAR2022//
AMPN/REFS A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 11MAR22 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 15.2S 38.4E, APPROXIMATELY 139 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NACALA, 
MOZAMBIQUE AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 112100) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 11.1S 110.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8S 108.9E, APPROXIMATELY 
191 NM EAST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 120435Z 89GHZ PASS REVEALS CONSOLIDATING 
CONVECTION OVERHEAD A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY; STRONG 
RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, 
AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90S WILL GENERALLY TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD, HOWEVER THEY ARE SPLIT ON INTENSIFICATION WITH ECMWF 
SHOWING SLOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.  MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO 
MEDIUM.//
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