ABIO10 PGTW 071200 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN REISSUED/071200Z-071800ZMAR2022// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/071051ZMAR2022// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.2S 52.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2S 52.1E, APPROXIMATELY 233NM NORTHEAST OF TOAMASINA, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE SOUTH, WHILE A RECENT 070544Z ASCAT PARTIAL PASS REVEALS A DOMINATE SWATH OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. ANALYSIS INDICATES THE ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH FEEBLE RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 97S WILL REMAIN GENERALLY QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE NEAR-TERM AND THEN MEANDER SLOWLY WEST TOWARDS MADAGASCAR OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36. HOWEVER THE TIMING OF WHEN 97S REACHES WARNING CRITERIA DIFFERS, WITH MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING HWRF AND COAMPS-TC INTENSIFYING THE DISTURBANCE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WITHIN 24 HOURS, PRIOR TO LANDFALL, WHILE ECMWF AND OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS HOLD THE INTENSITY BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THROUGH LANDFALL, FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 071100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: REISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// NNNN