ABIO10 PGTW 061800 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/061800Z-071800ZMAR2022// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061151ZMAR2022// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.2S 54.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1S 53.7E, APPROXIMATELY 275NM EAST OF TOAMASINA, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 061449Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE LLCC, WHILE A RELATIVELY RECENT 060604Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS A SWATH OF 25 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE SOUTH. ANALYSIS INDICATES THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH BURGEONING RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (05-15 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 97S WILL REMAIN GENERALLY QUASI-STATIONARY AND MEANDER WEST TOWARDS MADAGASCAR, HOWEVER THE TIMING OF WHEN 97S REACHES WARNING CRITERIA DIFFERS, WITH GFS INTENSIFYING THE DISTURBANCE TO A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN 24-36 HOURS WHILE ECMWF HOLDS THE INTENSITY BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH UNTIL LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 061200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. NNNN