ABIO10 PGTW 051800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/051800Z-061800ZMAR2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051351ZMAR2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 05MAR22 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 11.3N 83.4E, APPROXIMATELY 736 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, 
INDIA, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTIO31 PGTW 051500) FOR THE 
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 15.7S 55.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.3S 54.9E, APPROXIMATELY 412
NM EAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 051252Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE 
DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) DEFINED BY 
FLARING CONVECTION WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO 
THE DISTURBANCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS 
FOR DEVELOPMENT TO INCLUDE ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO 
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-20KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPRETURES (28-29C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 97S 
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT STEADILY INTENSIFIES 
EAST OF MADAGASCAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF 14S) PREVIOUSLY 
LOCATED NEAR 30.5S 79.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 31.4S 79.4E, 
APPROXIMATELY 1094 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT MATHURIN. THE SYSTEM IS 
CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED 
AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 051316Z SSMIS 91GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN ELONGATED AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLC) WITH A PROMINENT DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE 
POLEWARD EDGE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CONDITIONS FOR 
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT ARE UNFAVORABLE WITH COOL SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (23-24 C), DRY AIR DOMINATING THE LOWER LEVELS AND HIGH 
(20-30 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS 14S IS FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT 14S WILL REMAIN 
EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE JET AND TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST. FOR 
HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO 
HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED 
FORECAST AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
40 TO 45 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
991 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   D. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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