WTIO31 PGTW 051500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 051200Z --- NEAR 11.3N 83.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.3N 83.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 11.4N 82.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 11.0N 81.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 051500Z POSITION NEAR 11.3N 83.2E. 05MAR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 736 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT A DISORGANIZED SYSTEM, WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DISPLACED WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF AN AREA OF RAGGED, FLARING CONVECTION. A 051117Z SSMIS COLOR ENHANCED 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED THE FAIRLY WELL DEFINED LLCC APPROXIMATELY 125NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, AND LENT HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, AS IN ALL LIKELIHOOD, BASED ON A WIND FIELD ANALYSIS IN THE SSMIS WIND PRODUCT, THE ONLY REGION WITH POTENTIAL 35 KNOT WINDS IS FAR TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE PGTW AND DEMS DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T2.0 (30 KNOTS), WHILE THE ADT IS T2.4 (34 KNOTS). HWRF AREA AVERAGED SKEW-T DATA INDICATES STRONG (30 KTS) MID-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SHEAR, WHICH IS BORN OUT BY THE OVERALL DEPICTION IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY. ADDITIONALLY, DRY AIR POURING OFF THE INDIAN SUBCONTINENT IS BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS PRESENCE KNOWN, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO MOVE WEST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF AN ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL INDIA AND WILL TURN MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE INDIAN COAST, DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ENVELOPE THE LOW LEVEL REMNANTS OF THE CIRCULATION AND ULTIMATELY CHOKE IT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SOURCE. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO 30 KNOTS WITH THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT STEADILY APPROACHES THE INDIAN COAST. TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THOUGH THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AS A NOD TO THE RECENT TRACK MOTION, WHILE THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 14 FEET.// NNNN