ABIO10 PGTW 050630
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/050630Z-051800ZMAR2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041951ZMAR2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 04MAR22 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 11.1N 83.6E, APPROXIMATELY 743 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, 
INDIA, AND HAD TRACKED NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTIO31 PGTW 042100) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 9.4N 83.1E IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. 
SEE PARA. 1.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 15.6S 55.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.7S 55.7E, APPROXIMATELY 303 
NM EAST OF MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) AND A 041515Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A 
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) OBSCURED BY FLARING 
CONVECTION WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE 
DISTURBANCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
DEVELOPMENT TO INCLUDE GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (10-20KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPRETURES (28-29C). 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 97S WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 
QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT STEADILY INTENSIFIES EAST OF MADAGASCAR. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF 14S) PREVIOUSLY 
LOCATED NEAR 29.5S 79.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 30.5S 79.8E, 
APPROXIMATELY 1094 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT MATHURIN. THE SYSTEM IS 
CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED 
AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 050049Z SSMIS 91GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN ELONGATED AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLC) WITH A PROMINENT DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE 
POLEWARD EDGE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CONDITIONS FOR 
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT ARE UNFAVORABLE WITH COOL SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (23-24 C), DRY AIR DOMINATING THE LOWER LEVELS AND HIGH 
(20-30 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS 14S IS FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT 14S WILL REMAIN 
EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE JET AND TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST. FOR 
HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO 
HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED 
FORECAST AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
40 TO 45 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
991 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 2.C.(1) TO 
THE SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY.//
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