ABPW10 PGTW 050600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/050600Z-060600ZMAR2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 25.6S 172.5W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 25.6S 171.8W, APPROXIMATELY 
325 NM SOUTHEAST OF TONGA (THE PREVIOUS BULLETIN CONTAINED AN ERROR 
IN POSITION, THE ERROR IS CORRECTED HERE). ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 050419Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT 
FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE EASTERN PERIPERHY OF AN EXPOSED 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
CONTINUES TO INDICATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE(15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND 
WARM (27-28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. WHILE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN 
IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96P WILL CONSOLIDATE, CONTINUE TO TRACK 
SOUTHEASTWARD, AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48-72HRS, THEY 
ALSO INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SUBTROPICAL 
IN NATURE. THERE REMAINS A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE 
SYSTEM TO REACH WARNING THRESHOLD AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM BEFORE 
BECOMING FULLY SUBTROPICAL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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