ABIO10 PGTW 041800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/041800Z-051800ZMAR2022//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 9.4N 83.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 83.0E, APPROXIMATELY 228. 
NM SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 040051Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT 
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC). ADDITIONALLY, A 041602Z ASCAT-B PASS SHOWS THERE ARE 
30-35 KT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE NORTH. DEEP POCKETS 
OF CONVECTION DIRECTLY TO THE IMMEDIATE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERIES OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVLEOPMENT TO INCLUDE ROBUST 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-
29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE 
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE 
AND INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN COAST OF 
INDIA OVER THE NEXT 24-48HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. 
SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 040930) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
15.6S 55.9E, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM EAST OF MADAGASCAR.  ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 041515Z SSMIS 91GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) 
OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING BEGINNING TO 
WRAP INTO THE DISTURBANCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT TO INCLUDE GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO 
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-20KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPRETURES (28-29C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 97S 
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT STEADILY INTENSIFIES 
EAST OF MADAGASCAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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