WTPS31 PGTW 040300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (EVA) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (EVA) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 040000Z --- NEAR 25.5S 174.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.5S 174.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 25.3S 173.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 25.3S 172.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY SUBTROPICAL --- REMARKS: 040300Z POSITION NEAR 25.4S 174.1E. 04MAR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (EVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 489 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS SHOWS A LARGE SYSTEM WITH ITS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION AND CIRRI CANOPY STRETCHED AND SHEARED EASTWARD, PARTLY EXPOSING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) AND STREAKS OF COLD-AIR STRATUS BANDS THAT ARE FEEDING INTO LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTLY EXPOSED LLC IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35KTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW AND ADT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35KTS AND FROM RECENT ASCAT PASSES SHOWING 35KT BARBS ALONG THE SOUTHERN QUADRANTS AND 100+NM AWAY FROM THE CENTER. ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG EASTWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST OFFSET BY STRONG (30KT+) VWS AND THE INFLUX OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS, AS EVIDENCED BY THE COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS BANDS IN THE MSI LOOP. A CYCLONE PHASE ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES THAT TC 18P HAS TRANSITIONED INTO A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS SUCH AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SHALLOW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. ADDITIONALLY, THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WILL FURTHER DETERIORATE DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND PERSISTENT COLD DRY AIR INFLUX, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 24, LIKELY SOONER. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 12 FEET.// NNNN