ABIO10 PGTW 021800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/021800Z-031800ZMAR2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/021353ZMAR2022//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/021351ZMAR2022//
REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/021352ZMAR2022//
NARR/REFS A, B AND C ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 4.8N 87.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.0N 86.0E, APPROXIMATELY 383 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 021225Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS 
REVEALS AN OBSCURED BUT WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DEEP 
CONVECTION ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS 
MARGINAL AS 90B IS AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KT) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY WARM SEA TEMPURATURES (29-30C) AND STRONG 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK 
WESTNORTHWEST GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING AND STRENGTHING OVER THE NEXT 
36-48 HOURS. AS IT REACHES THE NORTHERN PORTION OF SRI LANKA AND THE 
SOUTH EASTERN COAST OF INDIA THE WINDOW FOR 90B TO REACH TROPICAL 
STORM STRENGTH IS LIMITED WITH GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING IT WILL 
REACH LAND AT ROUGHLY THE SAME INSTANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 02MAR22 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (SEVENTEEN) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 10.2S 111.4E, APPROXIMATELY 742 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF 
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED 
AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS33 PGTW 021500) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 02MAR22 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (VERNON) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 19.3S 83.5E, APPROXIMATELY 973 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO 
GARCIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 50 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 65 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS31 PGTW 021500 COR) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) AT 02MAR22 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (ANIKA) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 19.9S 120.5E, APPROXIMATELY 110 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT 
HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE 
ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF C (WTXS32 PGTW 
021500) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (4) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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