ABPW10 PGTW 020600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/020600ZMAR2022-030600ZMAR2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 24.4S 169.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.9S 170.0E, APPROXIMATELY 
249NM SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 020200Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE 
DEPICT A PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC) WITH MOST OF THE FORMATIVE CONVECTION AND BANDING 
DISPLACED TO THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION INCLUDING ROBUST 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-
29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST, HOWEVER THERE IS A 
MODERATE CHANCE IN A SHORT 24 HOUR WINDOW FOR 94P TO REACH TROPICAL 
STORM STRENGTH. BY TAU 36 94P IS EXPECTED TO STALL, STRETCH OUT AND 
BE OVERRUN BY DRY AIR ULTIMATELY TRANSITIONING INTO A SUBTROPICAL 
LOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 995 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
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