ABIO10 PGTW 012130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/012130Z-021800ZMAR2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/011351ZMAR2022//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/011951ZMAR2022//
REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/011751ZMAR2022//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS. REF C IS A
/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 01MAR22 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (VERNON) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 16.8S 85.6E, APPROXIMATELY 963 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO 
GARCIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 011500) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) AT 01MAR22 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (ANIKA) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 18.2S 121.6E, APPROXIMATELY 39 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BROOME, 
AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS31 PGTW 012100) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 15S) PREVIOUSLY 
LOCATED NEAR 17.7S 122.0E IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WARNING. SEE PARA. 2.A.(2) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 11.2S 110.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0S 110.9E, APPROXIMATELY 
307 NM EAST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. A 011430Z PARTIAL ASCAT C PASS 
REVEALS 30 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST 
OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (29-30C); OFFSET BY HIGH (30-35KT) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT INVEST 95S WILL 
HAVE LITTLE DEVELOPMENT AS IT TRACKS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE 
NEXT 24-48 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
25 TO 30 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF C (WTXS22 
PGTW 011800) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN 2.B.(1) TO WARNING 
STATUS. //
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