ABIO10 PGTW 011800 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/011800Z-021800ZMAR2022// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/011351ZMAR2022// REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010251ZMAR2022// REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/011751ZMAR2022// NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B AND C ARE TROPICAL /CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS.// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (1) AT 01MAR22 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (VERNON) WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8S 85.6E, APPROXIMATELY 963 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 011500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 15S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.6S 123.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.7S 122.0E, APPROXIMATELY 21 NM NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD CONVECTION OVERHEAD A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 011331Z METOP B IMAGE REVEALS FORMATIVE BANDING WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY; STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE REMNANTS OF TC 15S WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA BEFORE REMERGING OVER THE INDIAN OCEAN AROUND TAU 12. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS21 PGTW 010300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.5S 111.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2S 110.7E, APPROXIMATELY 295 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 011430Z PARTIAL ASCAT C PASS REVEALS 30 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (29-30C); OFFSET BY HIGH (30-35KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT INVEST 95S WILL HAVE LITTLE DEVELOPMENT AS IT TRACKS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF C (WTXS22 PGTW 011800) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.// NNNN