ABPW10 PGTW 010600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/010600ZMAR2022-020600ZMAR2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 22.3S 167.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.5S 167.4E, APPROXIMATELY 
55NM EAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 010256Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT 
COMPLICATED LOW LEVEL FEATURES WITH AN EXPOSED AND WELL DEFINED LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) SOUTHWEST OF NEW CALEDONIA, AND A 
LLCC JUST EAST OF NEW CALEDONIA OBSCURED BENEATH THE MORE FORMATIVE 
AND INTENSE CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION INCLUDING ROBUST RADIAL 
OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM 
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24-
48HRS WITH BOTH LLCCS EXPECTED TO MERGE AND CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE 
IDENTIFIABLE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 
NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
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