WTXS21 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (REMNANTS OF TC 15S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.5S 123.5E TO 18.5S 121.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 010000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.6S 123.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 15S) PREVIOUSLY 
LOCATED NEAR 16.5S 125.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.6S 123.3E, 
APPROXIMATELY 308 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF WYNDHAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 282216Z 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT 
BROAD CONVECTION OVERHEAD A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) THAT IS 
CURRENTLY OVER LAND.  ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY ROBUST OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO 
MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WARM 
(29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ONCE THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER 
WATER. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TC 15S WILL TRACK 
WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA BEFORE EMERGING 
OVER THE INDIAN OCEAN AROUND TAU 18 AND THEN REACH WARNING CRITERIA. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
020300Z.
//
NNNN