WTXS32 PGTW 262100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (ANIKA) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (ANIKA) WARNING NR 006 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 261800Z --- NEAR 14.2S 126.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 126.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 14.6S 126.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 14.9S 125.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 15.2S 125.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 15.7S 124.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 262100Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 126.7E. 26FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (ANIKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM ABOM AND NUMEROUS NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, INCLUDING WINDS AND PRESSURE FROM KALUMBURU, 10NM TO THE WEST, INDICATE TC 15S HAS MADE AN UNEXPECTED SOUTHWARD JOG AND MADE LANDFALL. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE RADAR LOOP AND TRIANGULATED FROM NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED HIGHER THAN THE NEARBY 261800Z WIND OBSERVATIONS, INCLUDING SSW/15G32KTS AT KALUMBURU. ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT OFFSHORE REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH LOW VWS, WARM SST, AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, THESE ARE GREATLY OFFSET BY FRICTIONAL EFFECTS DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. THE CYCLONE WILL RESUME A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL REFLECTION OF A WEAKENED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST BUT WILL REMAIN OVER LAND, AT LEAST UP TO TAU 48. IN VIEW OF THIS, TC ANIKA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO 30 KTS BY TAU 12, BELOW JTWC WARNING CRITERIA. THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING WHERE THE CYCLONE WAS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE COAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (VERNON) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN