ABIO10 PGTW 251800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/251800Z-261800ZFEB2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251351ZFEB2022//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251352ZFEB2022//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 25FEB22 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (VERNON) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 14.5S 93.3E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTHWEST OF COCOS 
ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE 
ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS GUSTING TO 85 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 
251500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 25FEB22 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 12.8S 127.8E, APPROXIMATELY 182 NM WEST OF DARWIN, 
AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS32 PGTW 251500) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 11.4S 88.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.3S 87.5E, APPROXIMATELY 919 
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY 
AND A 251114Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE 
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLC). THE ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT 
WITH LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (29-30C)SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MODELS AGREE THAT THE 
SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST, BUT INTENSIFICATION AND CONSOLIDATION IS 
COMPLICATED AS 93S WILL HAVE TO COMPETE WITH ITS TWIN SYSTEM, TC 14S 
(VERNON). THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW FOR 93S TO INTENSIFY AND REACH 
35KTS AS THE TWO STORMS BEGIN TO DANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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