ABIO10 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/251500Z-251800ZFEB2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251351ZFEB2022//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251352ZFEB2022//
NARR/REFS A AND A ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 25FEB22 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (VERNON) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 14.5S 93.3E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTHWEST OF COCOS 
ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE 
ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS GUSTING TO 85 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 
251500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 25FEB22 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 12.8S 127.8E, APPROXIMATELY 182 NM WEST OF DARWIN, 
AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 251500) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 11.4S 88.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6S 88.9E, APPROXIMATELY 
466NM WEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULITSPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 
251114Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE BANDING 
WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLC). THE 
ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE FOR TROPCIAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW 
(10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (29-30C)SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUFLOW. MODELS AGREE THAT THE 
SYSETM WILL TRACK EAST, BUT INTENISIFICATION AND CONSOLIDATION IS 
COMPLICATED AS 93S WILL HAVE TO COMPETE WITH ITS TWIN SYSTEM, TC 14S
(VERNON). THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW FOR 93S TO INTENSIFY AND REACH 
35KTS AS THE TWO STORMS BEGIN TO DANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
MEDIUM.  
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: THE AREA OF CONVECTION 
(REMNANTS OF TC 13S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 28.7S 41.8E IS NOW 
LOCATED NEAR 29.7S 41.7E, APPROXIMATELY 385NM SOUTH OF TOLIARA, 
MADAGASCAR. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL 
STORM, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MID-
LATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED, ELONGATED AND DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A BROAD DEFORMATION ZONE DISPLACED TO 
THE SOUTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POOR ENVIRONMENT FOR 
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH A STRONG GRADIENT OF VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (20-50KTS) DECAPITATING THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL FEATURES AND 
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (18-20C). GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT 
THE REMNANTS OF 13S WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD, STRETCH, BECOME 
ASYMETRICAL, AND FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE INDICATING 
TROPICAL TRANSITION WILL BE UNLIKELY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 38-43 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 989MB. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE 
FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER 
TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
SYSTEM TO TRANSITION INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPCIAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.A.(2) TO 
WARNING CRITERIA AND UPGRADED AREA IN 2.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.//
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